**Why Does the White House Keep Hyping Ukraine’s Possible Victory?**.
**The Biden administration is projecting confidence in Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia. But does it truly believe this, or is it playing a more complicated game?**.
By [Hal Brands](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/AXWrTlgXzGI/hal-brands).
February 23, 2023, 5:00 AM PST.
Since Russia’s invasion last February, the Biden administration has consistently projected confidence in Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia. President Joe Biden has repeatedly declared that “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that “we are seeing real progress being made by Ukraine on the battlefield.” And National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has asserted that “we are confident that Ukraine can win this war.”.
This messaging is a departure from the early days of the war, when US officials were more cautious about Ukraine’s prospects. In the spring of 2022, some Biden administration officials were reportedly pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of prevailing. But as the war has dragged on, the administration has become increasingly bullish about Ukraine’s prospects..
There are several possible explanations for this shift in messaging. One possibility is that the administration genuinely believes that Ukraine is making significant progress on the battlefield and that a Ukrainian victory is possible. This view is supported by some military analysts, who argue that Ukraine has been able to inflict heavy casualties on Russian forces and that the Russian military is increasingly demoralized..
Another possibility is that the administration is deliberately exaggerating Ukraine’s prospects in order to put pressure on Russia and to encourage other countries to provide more support to Ukraine. This view is supported by the fact that the administration has sometimes made claims about Ukraine’s military progress that have later been contradicted by independent observers..
A third possibility is that the administration is simply trying to keep morale high, both in Ukraine and among its international partners. By projecting confidence in Ukraine’s ability to win, the administration may be hoping to boost morale and encourage continued support for the war effort..
Whatever the administration’s motives, its messaging on Ukraine has been remarkably consistent. Even as the war has dragged on and Russia has made some gains, the administration has refused to waver in its belief that Ukraine can win. This messaging has been criticized by some, who argue that it is unrealistic and that it could lead to a protracted and bloody conflict. However, the administration has defended its messaging, arguing that it is necessary to maintain hope and to encourage continued support for Ukraine..
**The Risks of Exaggerating Ukraine’s Prospects**.
While the Biden administration’s messaging on Ukraine may be well-intentioned, it is important to be aware of the potential risks of exaggerating Ukraine’s prospects. One risk is that it could lead to a protracted and bloody conflict. If Ukraine believes that it can win the war, it may be less willing to compromise and negotiate with Russia. This could lead to a longer and more costly war, with more casualties on both sides..
Another risk is that it could undermine international support for Ukraine. If other countries believe that Ukraine is making significant progress and that victory is possible, they may be less willing to provide military and financial assistance. This could make it more difficult for Ukraine to sustain its war effort..
Finally, exaggerating Ukraine’s prospects could damage the credibility of the Biden administration. If it turns out that Ukraine is not able to win the war, the administration could be accused of misleading the public and its international partners. This could damage the administration’s credibility and make it more difficult to achieve its other foreign policy goals..
**Conclusion**.
The Biden administration’s messaging on Ukraine has been remarkably consistent. Even as the war has dragged on and Russia has made some gains, the administration has refused to waver in its belief that Ukraine can win. This messaging has been criticized by some, who argue that it is unrealistic and that it could lead to a protracted and bloody conflict. However, the administration has defended its messaging, arguing that it is necessary to maintain hope and to encourage continued support for Ukraine..
It is important to be aware of the potential risks of exaggerating Ukraine’s prospects. One risk is that it could lead to a protracted and bloody conflict. Another risk is that it could undermine international support for Ukraine. Finally, exaggerating Ukraine’s prospects could damage the credibility of the Biden administration..
The best way to support Ukraine is to provide it with the military and financial assistance it needs to defend itself. However, it is also important to be realistic about Ukraine’s prospects and to avoid exaggerating its chances of victory. By doing so, we can help to prevent a protracted and bloody conflict and to ensure that Ukraine has the best chance of achieving a just and lasting peace..
